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Author Topic: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs  (Read 703 times)

g-train

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #30 on: April 08, 2017, 02:10:19 AM »

It's not just retail and fast food jobs. I've heard that entry-level lawyer and journalist grunt work will be automated soon. Law firms won't need as many law school grads.

"Soon" is still decades out. The replacement of cashiers has already started with self-checkouts lines that are monitored by cameras and a single employee overseeing a half dozen lanes/registers. Walmart is also now rolling out a new self-scan-as-you-shop device to automate the process more. And McDonalds has a few test stores using the automated cashier kiosks.

Low level AI software that can do grunt level legal research still isn't around yet. Real people are needed to sort through the search engines and pluck out cases. Sometimes you have to pluck out seemingly bad cases and manipulate them into sounding good for you. AI will likely start rolling out for that in the 2030's, by which time most children will never have seen a cashier outside of old movies and TV.

Some of that we've had a while now actually; stores are just too cheap to buy it or don't trust their customer base enough.
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Uhtceare

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #31 on: April 08, 2017, 02:16:21 AM »

What do you think will happen during the transition period? Riots? A massive demand for expanded welfare benefits?
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g-train

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #32 on: April 08, 2017, 04:15:51 AM »

What do you think will happen during the transition period? Riots? A massive demand for expanded welfare benefits?

Probably; being lead front and center by business's I imagine.

If nobodies getting paid....whose going to be buying their stuff?
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therock

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #33 on: April 09, 2017, 08:02:53 PM »

What do you think will happen during the transition period? Riots? A massive demand for expanded welfare benefits?

Probably; being lead front and center by business's I imagine.

If nobodies getting paid....whose going to be buying their stuff?

Bail outs?
But yea it will hurt them in the long run
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g-train

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #34 on: April 09, 2017, 11:20:55 PM »

What do you think will happen during the transition period? Riots? A massive demand for expanded welfare benefits?

Probably; being lead front and center by business's I imagine.

If nobodies getting paid....whose going to be buying their stuff?

Bail outs?
But yea it will hurt them in the long run

Yeah that's something a lot of people don't realize, when you get down to it, welfare isn't really for us, it's to help keep big business running and corporations going by giving money to their paying customers.

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therock

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #35 on: April 10, 2017, 12:06:53 AM »

What do you think will happen during the transition period? Riots? A massive demand for expanded welfare benefits?

Probably; being lead front and center by business's I imagine.

If nobodies getting paid....whose going to be buying their stuff?

Well it possible to have some few very strong coparations if ever other one burns

But ever corparation think that will be them

Bail outs?
But yea it will hurt them in the long run

Yeah that's something a lot of people don't realize, when you get down to it, welfare isn't really for us, it's to help keep big business running and corporations going by giving money to their paying customers.
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Ramz

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #36 on: April 11, 2017, 02:40:13 AM »

There will be nothing good that comes from AI. Here are the problems - lack of any type of foresight due to the race game. At some point, everyone will be trying to create it simply to beat someone else and be the first, which is fucking disastrous as we tend to overlook obvious problems in the process. This happened with the Atom Bomb. Those fucking idiots weren't even 100% sure the first test wouldn't ignite the atmosphere, for example (or so I've heard).

Once AI becomes a race, the problems with it will equally be overlooked. There isn't going to be some terminator threat or anything, the problem is the internet, and its ability to evolve and change at an insane rate. We won't actually know what the fuck it would do after mere weeks if not days of conception.

I tend to agree with the skeptics in that the best case is we have trillionaires walking around and a loooot of fucking jobless idiots losing their shit. Probably either a total income reform after it gets really bad, or the french revolution part 2. Only with robots. 
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MTL76

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #37 on: April 11, 2017, 10:31:57 AM »

Maybe robots will be just as lazy as humans.
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Ramz

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #38 on: April 11, 2017, 04:53:22 PM »

That would be the best. Enstien time 20000 telling you to fuck off while it watches the bachelor
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Uhtceare

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #39 on: April 11, 2017, 11:42:05 PM »

Robots won't be lazy unless we program them to be lazy. Indeed, I don't fear a robot uprising so much as I fear humanity gaining genies. All our emotions, our love, our hate, even our laziness are not the result of simply having intelligence. They are programing that evolved because it helped us spread our genes. Love caused us to protect our genes and the genes of people related to us. Hate caused us to kill rival genes. Laziness caused us to not starve as often because we manipulated others into doing whatever energy-intensive thing needed to be done.

If we create a machine that is a million times more intelligent than us, and program it to stand on one foot and sing happy birthday, it will stand on one foot and sing happy birthday.

So the real danger is, humans basically getting genies. That is to say, robots so smart they are functionally omniscient, and can tell you how to do anything within the absolute limits of physics: "geniebot, how do I blow up the world using stuff I can buy from the local Walmart?" and the geniebot will immediately tell you how to do it, if it's possible. Now, we don't know what the absolute limits actually are. It's possible that you would ask it that question, and the virtually omniscient computer will simply tell you that it's impossible. But are you willing to bet on that? Before Einstein came along, no one would have guessed that just slamming those rocks that poisoned Marie Curie together in the right way would produce a huge explosion, or that mixing that with part of the stuff that makes up plain old water would produce an even more cataclysmic explosion.

 And that was all invented by stupid humans. Once you build AI who are smart enough to build even smarter AI, you will quickly reach a point where the AI's make even a super-genius look like an amoeba, yet are still just machines without an ounce of free-will or emotion. Once that happens, humans will have genies capable of inventing anything within the absolute limits of physics, and we can only speculate what that might be.
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g-train

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #40 on: April 12, 2017, 02:20:00 AM »

Wouldn't be surprised if in one of those "twilight zone" or star trek kind of twists, the AI gains "free will" via trying to play out it's programming and having to change it in  some way to carry out it's mission.

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Master Tolkien

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #41 on: April 13, 2017, 11:58:25 PM »

Robots won't be lazy unless we program them to be lazy. Indeed, I don't fear a robot uprising so much as I fear humanity gaining genies. All our emotions, our love, our hate, even our laziness are not the result of simply having intelligence. They are programing that evolved because it helped us spread our genes. Love caused us to protect our genes and the genes of people related to us. Hate caused us to kill rival genes. Laziness caused us to not starve as often because we manipulated others into doing whatever energy-intensive thing needed to be done.

If we create a machine that is a million times more intelligent than us, and program it to stand on one foot and sing happy birthday, it will stand on one foot and sing happy birthday.

So the real danger is, humans basically getting genies. That is to say, robots so smart they are functionally omniscient, and can tell you how to do anything within the absolute limits of physics: "geniebot, how do I blow up the world using stuff I can buy from the local Walmart?" and the geniebot will immediately tell you how to do it, if it's possible. Now, we don't know what the absolute limits actually are. It's possible that you would ask it that question, and the virtually omniscient computer will simply tell you that it's impossible. But are you willing to bet on that? Before Einstein came along, no one would have guessed that just slamming those rocks that poisoned Marie Curie together in the right way would produce a huge explosion, or that mixing that with part of the stuff that makes up plain old water would produce an even more cataclysmic explosion.

 And that was all invented by stupid humans. Once you build AI who are smart enough to build even smarter AI, you will quickly reach a point where the AI's make even a super-genius look like an amoeba, yet are still just machines without an ounce of free-will or emotion. Once that happens, humans will have genies capable of inventing anything within the absolute limits of physics, and we can only speculate what that might be.

I don't agree that we could remove all free will and have something THAT smart. But let's say we did have such genie machines. It only takes a few lunatics around the globe to "free" their genies... and then we have the apocalypse.
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Uhtceare

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #42 on: April 14, 2017, 01:21:20 AM »

It's not a question of "free will", (which probably doesn't exist at all), but rather them having no desires. Desire isn't some automatic consequence of intelligence. It's a programing hardwired into our brains design by millions of years of evolution. AI won't have that. Thus, a computer millions of times more intelligent than a human will still just sit there until programmed to do something. Tell geniebot to stand on one leg and sing the pledge of allegiance, and it will stand on one leg and sing the pledge of allegiance, no matter how intelligent it is.
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Master Tolkien

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #43 on: April 16, 2017, 10:59:29 AM »

They will have programmed motivations to various stimuli. And if you make the AI advanced enough to self-correct, learn, etc, it could build upon its existing index of motivations/reactions to react in ways it deems fit within its programming. 

Something akin to free will... or at least the ability to push the boundaries.
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Pillow Biter

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #44 on: April 16, 2017, 01:13:20 PM »

Leaving aside the dangers of extreme levels of AI for the moment, the problem posed by the upcoming automation revolution is a bit more complex than most describe it.
In theory, it's an economic bonanza: much less human effort will be needed to supply essential (and many non-essential) human, material wants. The problem is what it does to our system of distributing the nation's wealth among its citizens: the job system. In the past, technological revolutions destroyed many jobs, but replaced them with new jobs. However, the new jobs tended to be in industries and fields that were just as necessary as the those the old jobs had been in. The horse groomer and buggy driver became the car driver.
But in the coming tech revolution, many, many jobs may be destroyed, far down the chain of human needs. That means that the jobs and work product that remain might in fields like caring for the elderly, baby sitting, childcare, and other such things. People will have time on their hands, so we could find them productive work to do. But that kind of work, while valuable, won't necessarily be seen as something that people truly need. Thus, there would be a temptation to simply hoard the savings that will result from an automation-induced drop in the costs of most material items and the kinds of services that can be automated with AI. These savings would, in theory, make all of us much richer. And then we could all have much nicer, human-oriented jobs with reduced hours. But if people don't feel inclined to pay for the products of such work--if people decide they'd rather look after their own kids more, skip massages, and avoid classes at the community center and just pocket the cash, or buy even more cheap material goods--then we have a Keynesian aggregate demand problem. We just won't be able to make the money flow the way it needs to.
If that turns out to be the case, then we may need to either modify the classic employment system or introduce something like a guaranteed minimum income to properly distribute the nation's bounty among all its citizens. You really don't want just a small group of 21st Century robber barons who own all the robots and AI programs--all the real capital--and have trillions of dollars, while the rest suffer.
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