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Author Topic: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs  (Read 977 times)

Master Tolkien

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #15 on: April 05, 2017, 11:11:24 PM »

McDonalds and Walmart are already preparing to transition to 0 cashiers. It's not like they will hire more people for different jobs... they will just have less jobs.

In the past, technological advances involved a change in the product or service. That just required people to be retrained in a new field. The new technological advancements are a change in the laborer... replacing humans with machines.

Sure, there will be a few jobs created to monitor and maintain the machines/robots/automated services. But very few. Assistant managers will likely be tasked with that menial and rare task. Cashiers will vanish from several major retailers and fast food chains in the next decade, akin to Blockbuster vanishing. Just gone. A thing of the past.

And then self-driving vehicles will eliminate tons of truck drivers, taxi drivers, bus drivers, and a large chunk of the Uber/Lyft employment market.
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MTL76

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #16 on: April 06, 2017, 12:01:42 AM »

It's not just retail and fast food jobs. I've heard that entry-level lawyer and journalist grunt work will be automated soon. Law firms won't need as many law school grads.
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g-train

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #17 on: April 06, 2017, 01:05:46 AM »

It's not just retail and fast food jobs. I've heard that entry-level lawyer and journalist grunt work will be automated soon. Law firms won't need as many law school grads.

Lawyer's were already having trouble getting jobs weren't they?

Hell; I'm almost surprised we don't have robo-lawyers anyways with an entire encyclopedia of the law at their finger tips.
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therock

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #18 on: April 06, 2017, 01:20:56 AM »

McDonalds and Walmart are already preparing to transition to 0 cashiers. It's not like they will hire more people for different jobs... they will just have less jobs.

In the past, technological advances involved a change in the product or service. That just required people to be retrained in a new field. The new technological advancements are a change in the laborer... replacing humans with machines.

Sure, there will be a few jobs created to monitor and maintain the machines/robots/automated services. But very few. Assistant managers will likely be tasked with that menial and rare task. Cashiers will vanish from several major retailers and fast food chains in the next decade, akin to Blockbuster vanishing. Just gone. A thing of the past.

And then self-driving vehicles will eliminate tons of truck drivers, taxi drivers, bus drivers, and a large chunk of the Uber/Lyft employment market.


Well I actully do uber, and Lyft for some more money.  So know Im fucked
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Ramz

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #19 on: April 06, 2017, 03:08:10 AM »

Sam Harris has had a recent influx of AI themes and the discussions that come with it. Its making me think the absolute best case scenario with AI is that we lose all jobs, and there is an even greater inequality gap (if that's even possible). The best case scenario is that we have to figure out universal income for the masses, that works.

Worst case, is we all die.
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Mightily Oats

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #20 on: April 06, 2017, 07:31:07 AM »

It's almost fucked up to say this BUT

At least at first, the immense cost of these AI to replace human workers will probably be way higher than a lot of employers are willing to pay.

At least initially.

But it is basically delaying the inevitable.
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Uhtceare

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #21 on: April 06, 2017, 08:01:29 AM »

It's almost fucked up to say this BUT

At least at first, the immense cost of these AI to replace human workers will probably be way higher than a lot of employers are willing to pay.

At least initially.

But it is basically delaying the inevitable.

Which gives a crushing advantage to big corporations over mom-n-pop places. Big corporations can afford to invest in robots, knowing that the savings will more than make up for it in a year or two. Mom-n-pop places might not be able to afford that sort of investment. Which in turn will mean that Wal-Mart and the like will be able to drop their prices far below that of mom-n-pop places, thanks to much lower overhead.
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Bran Mak Morn

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #22 on: April 06, 2017, 12:03:16 PM »


At least at first, the immense cost of these AI to replace human workers will probably be way higher than a lot of employers are willing to pay.

At least initially.

But it is basically delaying the inevitable.

Read an article today on how companies in the foreseeable future will be forced to pay more taxes based on the ratio of humans that get displaced by robots.

And how every product will be labelled whether it's made by humans or robots to give the consumers a "moral opinion" of where they source their products from.
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g-train

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #23 on: April 06, 2017, 01:35:04 PM »


At least at first, the immense cost of these AI to replace human workers will probably be way higher than a lot of employers are willing to pay.

At least initially.

But it is basically delaying the inevitable.

Read an article today on how companies in the foreseeable future will be forced to pay more taxes based on the ratio of humans that get displaced by robots.

And how every product will be labelled whether it's made by humans or robots to give the consumers a "moral opinion" of where they source their products from.

Yeah optimally we go back to pre-1970's tax levels on the rich and corporations to try and make up for it.

Honestly I can't think of what we can do to really counter act it, everybody gets on YouTube?

And that's something to consider, all the mom-n-pop places or medium to small sized companies are going to be seriously affected by the robo-revolution.

Grocery stores probably keep on keeping on, but unless EBT starts being available to restaurants and business in general.....

Immigration of all kinds comes down to almost a full stop.  Which is probably good for the other nations really; cuts down on the brain drain and job creators from leaving them.


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ProjectCornDog

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #24 on: April 06, 2017, 07:23:03 PM »

I truly believe you guys are overreacting (or maybe I am under-reacting hahah).

If you look at how society works RIGHT NOW; then yes machines walking in, filling out job applications, getting hired and replacing humans in droves sounds like a nightmare scenario.

But this isn't some alien force popping in out of no where, society is constantly changing and adapting. It doesn't seem like this has happened since we see every step of progress before our eyes, but much change has happened in our lifetimes alone. And what happens as a result? Society changes.

Imagine you have never seen a car before and then some guy comes to you and says "people will be driving several ton metal boxes 70-80 miles an hour, there will literally be hundreds to thousands of these boxes on the same road, and we are going to have lights where roads intersect to help the flow of people." If you heard that you probably could not think that would work. People are fast enough on horses, how the hell can they manage to guide anything going 80 miles an hour let alone with hundreds of people doing the same?

A lot of things are seemingly improbably/impossible until it happens. We are living in an age where things that once seemed improbable have become, or are becoming probable. By the time machines are able to replace 38% of our jobs, the world will be a much different place. 3-D printers will have become much more mainstream, alternative sources of energy will become much more mainstream (things like solar panel technology have grown exponentially). Medicine will improve, health will improve, access to resources will vastly improve, there will be less accidental deaths (driverless cars mean less chance of human error, I wouldn't be surprised if driving becomes illegal on main roads at some point in the future). Society will adapt and we will all live better lives.
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Uhtceare

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #25 on: April 06, 2017, 08:03:05 PM »

All that will probably be true...eventually. But one can't ignore that the middle class has been dying, while the gap between rich and poor has been growing. A big chunk of that has been caused by the weakening of unions, and the weakening of unions has been partially caused by corporations simply not needing nearly as much labor. That's likely going to get worse before it gets better. At some point we will all be living like old-timey plantation owners with our robot slaves doing everything. But there is likely going to be a mid-point, where corporations hold more power than ever before because of non-existent labor costs, yet robots aren't quite good enough to create a blend of socialism and old-timey-plantation-ism, for want of a better word. That mid-point is going to be ugly. I expect a lot of unrest.
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ProjectCornDog

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #26 on: April 06, 2017, 09:23:19 PM »

Yeah I would not argue the wage gap is due to technology, it's definitely due to the system we have in place that dictates our economy and laws.
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g-train

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #27 on: April 07, 2017, 07:24:35 PM »

I truly believe you guys are overreacting (or maybe I am under-reacting hahah).

If you look at how society works RIGHT NOW; then yes machines walking in, filling out job applications, getting hired and replacing humans in droves sounds like a nightmare scenario.

But this isn't some alien force popping in out of no where, society is constantly changing and adapting. It doesn't seem like this has happened since we see every step of progress before our eyes, but much change has happened in our lifetimes alone. And what happens as a result? Society changes.

Imagine you have never seen a car before and then some guy comes to you and says "people will be driving several ton metal boxes 70-80 miles an hour, there will literally be hundreds to thousands of these boxes on the same road, and we are going to have lights where roads intersect to help the flow of people." If you heard that you probably could not think that would work. People are fast enough on horses, how the hell can they manage to guide anything going 80 miles an hour let alone with hundreds of people doing the same?

A lot of things are seemingly improbably/impossible until it happens. We are living in an age where things that once seemed improbable have become, or are becoming probable. By the time machines are able to replace 38% of our jobs, the world will be a much different place. 3-D printers will have become much more mainstream, alternative sources of energy will become much more mainstream (things like solar panel technology have grown exponentially). Medicine will improve, health will improve, access to resources will vastly improve, there will be less accidental deaths (driverless cars mean less chance of human error, I wouldn't be surprised if driving becomes illegal on main roads at some point in the future). Society will adapt and we will all live better lives.

True; 38% of people not having jobs isn't necessarily a bad thing.

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g-train

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #28 on: April 07, 2017, 07:25:46 PM »

Yeah I would not argue the wage gap is due to technology, it's definitely due to the system we have in place that dictates our economy and laws.

Goes with technology as well.

Less workers means they are needed less, which means they have less pull straight out from the beginning and the Unions are less powerful.

Which means they end up being unable to barter as well as they used to.

Not to mention didn't Obama pass several "anti-Union" laws?
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Master Tolkien

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Re: Robots expected to take 38% of our Jobs
« Reply #29 on: April 07, 2017, 08:31:02 PM »

It's not just retail and fast food jobs. I've heard that entry-level lawyer and journalist grunt work will be automated soon. Law firms won't need as many law school grads.

"Soon" is still decades out. The replacement of cashiers has already started with self-checkouts lines that are monitored by cameras and a single employee overseeing a half dozen lanes/registers. Walmart is also now rolling out a new self-scan-as-you-shop device to automate the process more. And McDonalds has a few test stores using the automated cashier kiosks.

Low level AI software that can do grunt level legal research still isn't around yet. Real people are needed to sort through the search engines and pluck out cases. Sometimes you have to pluck out seemingly bad cases and manipulate them into sounding good for you. AI will likely start rolling out for that in the 2030's, by which time most children will never have seen a cashier outside of old movies and TV.
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