Herochat

The Brexit Thread

The Shuruku Demon

  • *****
  • 1963
  • +14/-4
    • View Profile
Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #15 on: June 22, 2016, 10:59:34 PM »
Not really bothered by that, personally. I just don't believe in nationalism as an ideology. Not to say I'm not prone to nationalism from time to time (I want the British football teams to do well in the Euros, for example), but I don't consider it a virtue, more an indulgence.

Ugh huh. So would you support a one world government?

If and when humanity were sufficiently united to be in favour of that, sure. Be nice if people could stop fighting over lines on a map some day, and instead work together for wider common interests.





As I understand it, the main reason those fishing regulations were put in place was to help preserve fish stocks, which have long been in decline in some areas. If the limitations aren't the same everywhere, it's probably because the fish stocks aren't as depleted everywhere. I have sympathy with struggling fishermen to some extent, but I'm not sure I want them to prosper at the cost of wiping out whole species of fish in a given region. Regulations aside, that wouldn't be a sustainable long term business plan.

The issue is that these laws and regulations are being made by unelected bureaucrats who, it seems to be, have limited to no accountability to the people they are governing. You're describing a very paternalistic situation. What happens when they pass a law that is unpalatable to you? What recourse will you have? Democratically elected governments are far from perfect but there is at least some accountability.

And there needs to be far more accountability within the EU. My preference to remain in the EU isn't an endorsement of everything that goes on there.

This seems less like an issue of nationalism and more like one of self-government.

It's not an either/or. Those things tend to be intermingled in most cases. But while the Vote Leave campaign certainly mentions self-governance a lot, immigration is really the number one gripe amongst the electorate. And the primary concerns over immigration are A) that it's putting an intolerable strain on our public services and the availability of housing, and B) that it's eroding the British or English sense of national identity.

MTL76

  • ********
  • 9411
  • +1111/-11
  • "What if I know all your secrets, Your Eminence?"
    • View Profile
Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #16 on: June 22, 2016, 11:04:54 PM »
Shouldn't Britain determine it's own immigration policy? Isn't that just another aspect of self-government?


Minority Shareholder, Combine Honnete Ober Advancer Mercantiles (CHOAM)

The Create A Team / Power Set Combo Compendium

ProjectCornDog

  • *******
  • 4143
  • +1/-12
    • View Profile
Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #17 on: June 22, 2016, 11:39:01 PM »
Not really bothered by that, personally. I just don't believe in nationalism as an ideology. Not to say I'm not prone to nationalism from time to time (I want the British football teams to do well in the Euros, for example), but I don't consider it a virtue, more an indulgence.

Ugh huh. So would you support a one world government?

If and when humanity were sufficiently united to be in favour of that, sure. Be nice if people could stop fighting over lines on a map some day, and instead work together for wider common interests.

Wow. Yeah.

This is the problem. This idealistic view that isn't practical whatsoever. There are over 7 billion people on this planet, there is absolutely no way to make laws that keep in context every single person, every single region, all their problems, all their saving graces, their natural resources, their demographics, their geography.

Not to mention, there is no agreed/correct way to govern. This is where the Founding Fathers of America were so ahead of the game. They knew there were so many questions that were simply not black and white, so why not have states experiment with different legislation? The good ones will be replicated and the bad ones don't impact the entire country. It gets even more complicated than that, some laws work in some states but don't work in others. And sometimes what is "good" is subjective, not "objective." For example, we would never want Vladimir Putin's type of regime in America yet his approval rating remains very high in Russia. The great thing about competing societies is that, if you prefer the way one community governs then you can move to that one.

AP

  • ********
  • 14911
  • +50/-48
    • View Profile
Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #18 on: June 23, 2016, 12:41:09 AM »
Yeah, anyone who thinks a world government is feasible is delusional.  Humans are just too scummy and fucked up to not screw things up horribly.

At any rate, I think the EU has always been a mistake.  Seems it caused more problems than it helped.

nu-safado

  • ************
  • 4226
  • +4/-1
    • View Profile
Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #19 on: June 23, 2016, 01:10:51 AM »
The eu fracturing has been an inevitability from the get go. Europe tries to unite periodically to prevent the perpetual conflict between flash points.

The Balkans, Central Europe and other rival nationalities are always prone to conflict. The eu exists to prevent that and Russian power.

Britain is the first in a long chain of nations that is becoming nativist, anti-immigrant and racist to the detriment of common sense. There is no sound reason for Britain to leave, it gets everything it needs and dictates all the terms without being exposed to much more than trading bloc headaches. It's stands to lose and risk its stays as the worlds capital,if finance among other things.

I do understand it, and it looks like the trend in the us, Japan, China and most developed nations at the moment. It's a dangerous, virulent strain of explosive nationalism. If Britain votes out to or row, there going to be blood in the financial waters forvsome time to come.



Btw


Putin is popular for very odd reasons. He's notvrepresentative of popularity. He's representative of Russians fear of declining power and a dangerous natomon it's very porous borders.

The Shuruku Demon

  • *****
  • 1963
  • +14/-4
    • View Profile
Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #20 on: June 23, 2016, 07:20:40 AM »
Shouldn't Britain determine it's own immigration policy? Isn't that just another aspect of self-government?

Absolutely. But full control over immigration for individual EU states isn't remotely on the table. So if we vote to remain, the UK will effectively be saying we're willing to relinquish that control, however begrudgingly, in exchange for the wider benefits of being in the union. A democratic choice by the people.

And from the perspective of many anti-EU Brits, it isn't so much the issue of who controls immigration that rankles them the most, but rather the sheer numbers of migrants who've come in over the last two decades in particular. They wouldn't be any less aggrieved about that if it were the British government who'd allowed it. In fact, slightly more than half of recent immigrants to the UK aren't EU citizens, so that proportion was actually allowed in by the British government.





Wow. Yeah.

This is the problem. This idealistic view that isn't practical whatsoever. There are over 7 billion people on this planet, there is absolutely no way to make laws that keep in context every single person, every single region, all their problems, all their saving graces, their natural resources, their demographics, their geography.

Not to mention, there is no agreed/correct way to govern. This is where the Founding Fathers of America were so ahead of the game. They knew there were so many questions that were simply not black and white, so why not have states experiment with different legislation? The good ones will be replicated and the bad ones don't impact the entire country. It gets even more complicated than that, some laws work in some states but don't work in others. And sometimes what is "good" is subjective, not "objective." For example, we would never want Vladimir Putin's type of regime in America yet his approval rating remains very high in Russia.

I think you're looking at this very much in a present day context, whereas I'm taking a long term view of the direction I'd like to see humanity headed in. We're already moving in that direction, in the sense that we're gradually coalescing economically and socially. I'm not sure where our descendants will end up, but the more they can agree on in terms of the law, economics, conservation, etc, the better IMO.

The great thing about competing societies is that, if you prefer the way one community governs then you can move to that one.

When you say "one community", do you mean a country, or a state within the US? Because if you move from one US state to another, you're still living under the same federal government. So it's that selfsame federal system that would allow you to move around freely like that. Similar to the freedom you'd have as an EU citizen moving between EU member states. Contrast that with trying to move from one sovereign nation to another, if they aren't already part of some type of union. Not quite so straightforward.

Not BAMF

  • ********
  • 4466
  • +6/-11
    • View Profile
Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #21 on: June 23, 2016, 08:11:12 AM »
I'm on board with Shuruku here. I don't really have a horse in this race, but I think when people get obsessively defensive over imaginary lines drawn on a map... that's why wars happen.

No one is saying "One world monarch tomorrow!" or anything, obviously, but the systematic erosion of the idea that random chunks of land mass are more important than people is a good thing.

superlurker

  • **
  • 457
  • +10/-0
    • View Profile
Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #22 on: June 23, 2016, 08:47:40 AM »
The great thing about competing societies is that, if you prefer the way one community governs then you can move to that one.

One of the key aspects of the Brexit campaign is about preventing people from moving around like that, keeping people from moving from a less successful society to a more successful one.

superlurker

  • **
  • 457
  • +10/-0
    • View Profile
Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #23 on: June 23, 2016, 09:16:17 AM »
The argument about national self-determination is largely bunkum.

Norway is currently outside the EU, but has a set of extensive treaties and trade agreements that allow access to the European common market. The result of this arrangement is that Norway has to adapt all the EU rules that pertain to the market, but has little influence in shaping those rules. Essentially, being outside the EU essentially *reduces* our national self-determination in many ways.

Britain is a much larger nation which would doubtless have more weight in negotiations over such issues with the EU, but the end result would still be the same in many areas -- in order to maintain the economic benefits of access to the common market (because moving out of the common market would be going full retard), Britain would likely have to abide by regulations in many areas that would still be made in Brussels. The difference would be that Britain's ability to influence those regulations would be reduced. So while being outside the EU would increase British control over some areas of policy, Britain would have less influence in other fields.

Now, the EU is by and large a good concept, with many problematic aspects to it. The original concept is simple enough -- fostering integration between European countries to mitigate conflict among them. This is one of the reasons the Euro in particular was a terrible idea in many ways -- unless economic integration among the member states is driven a lot further, it will act as a divisive force. However, Britain didn't join that, so that's not really an issue here.

And with regards to migration, it's noteworthy that per capita, migration to Britain has been substantially lower than migration to countries like Switzerland and Norway that remain outside of the EU.

Control over fisheries? Fishermen will always want to fish more for themselves. It's a good thing they're held back by central regulations, or the seas would be empty. And the larger the zone being regulated, the more fair the quotas can potentially be, if managed with appropriate scientific data. It's also unlikely that British fishermen would see a bounty outside the EU. Norwegian fishermen are always whining about quotas too, outside the EU.

Leaving the EU would simply be unlikely to accomplish much for the betterment of Britain, but it is likely it would cause some economic disruption and likely damage relations with European countries to some degree.

nu-safado

  • ************
  • 4226
  • +4/-1
    • View Profile
Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #24 on: June 23, 2016, 12:38:56 PM »
I think it's far more dangerous than that. If a nation as powerful and influential as Britain, who's not exposed to eu financial crises as profoundly as Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal among others exits, it's going to much harder to not have further defaults.

At some point Germany's cental banks simply won't be able to handle it and the fracturing will worden

Britains migration problem is a red herring to distract from a swelling tide of nation animism and racism. Britain needs the common market no matter what, they're just making it more difficult for themselves in lieu of nationalistic forces.

Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #25 on: June 23, 2016, 01:37:35 PM »
Looks like it will be a real squeaker. Who is for or against it? Why?


Interestingly, while most polls have it as close, every bookie out there has it as a comprehensive "remain" victory (1/10 to stay and 10/1 to leave in some places).

Bookies are very rarely wrong when they are offering odds like that, so I don't think it's going to be all that much of a squeaker as it turns out.

I'm "in" for the record, for largely similar reasons as those outlined by Shuruku and superlurker.

One way or the other, I'll be bloody glad when it is all over - properly bored of it now, you haven't been able to escape it over here for months. Which is especially regrettable when you see how ugly the campaigns have been and how much I detest the key figures on both sides.

Even when the "Brexit" folk lose tonight though, I suspect the lasting legacy of this will be major gains for UKIP. The genie is out of the bottle now in terms of widespread (not quite widespread enough to carry a "leave" vote, but a very significant minority) anti-European and/or thinly veiled racist sentiment, that's not going to be impossible to bottle up again. The Tory party has torn itself apart too, so that horrible odious fuck Farage is likely to be the real winner here long term unfortunately.


Cheers.

Kang Council

  • ***
  • 585
  • +0/-0
    • View Profile
Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #26 on: June 23, 2016, 02:10:13 PM »
Let me guess you guys would vote to stay in, right?

nu-safado

  • ************
  • 4226
  • +4/-1
    • View Profile
Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #27 on: June 23, 2016, 06:00:01 PM »
Everyone sane would vote to stay in.

The Ukip and Brxit  is Donald trump sounding smarter because he has a well rounded British accent and exchanging po lacks for Mexicans

Muslims are feared and discriminated against all across the board.

Glad to hear about the bookies rarely being wrong. I've been watching them in the U.S. general more so than Quinnipiac or rassmussen

Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #28 on: June 23, 2016, 06:43:50 PM »
Glad to hear about the bookies rarely being wrong. I've been watching them in the U.S. general more so than Quinnipiac or rassmussen

They're wrong plenty as they will always hedge against uncertainty obviously, but it's very rare for them to offer odds like they started doing earlier today and be caught out. I reckon they might have had a tip-off about the trends coming in from the postal votes or something, there's no way they would offer 1/10 vs 10/1 based on the polls alone which still indicated a degree of uncertainty.

Interestingly, early indications suggest that voter turnout was about 70% or just over (compared to 66% for the general election) which suggests a surprising amount of voter apathy.

First local authority due to report soon (Sunderland) - data analysts suggested that Brexit would need to win that area by at least 6-10% to indicate a nationwide success. Early reports vary from 53% Brexit win to maybe even a Remain win - if the latter is true, it's going to be a lot less close than the polls thought.


Cheers.

Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #29 on: June 23, 2016, 07:19:08 PM »
Well fuck me sideways... the results from Newcastle and Sunderland have just made this seem very interesting and may leave me (and my faith in the bookies!) looking a bit silly.

Odds on Brexit tumbling by the hour... still confident it will be remain, but it's going to be tight if these early showings are any indication.

9 million postal votes could be a big factor, and they were all cast at the peak of Brexit support...


Cheers.