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The Brexit Thread

MTL76

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The Brexit Thread
« on: June 22, 2016, 09:27:09 AM »
Apologies if there's another thread for this, I couldn't find one.

The Brexit, or Brexodus if you're an Alan Partridge fan, is almost upon us. Looks like it will be a real squeaker. Who is for or against it? Why?

One interesting thing is that whatever the vote is, it isn't binding, and Parliament cans imply disregard it.


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scourge

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Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #1 on: June 22, 2016, 10:21:15 AM »
I've got no skin in the game, but:

On the plus you can live anywhere in Europe w/o annoying paperwork
On the downside UK is 100 fire and there are certain countries ::cough:: Greece ::cough:: that do you no favors and take that 100 down some. Then again, help other people? Europe together, you're a bigger power?

wish the britpack was still more active. Fellas?

ProjectCornDog

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Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2016, 11:32:54 AM »
If I lived there, not only would I vote for Britain to leave the EU but I'd campaign on the movement's behalf.

scourge

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Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #3 on: June 22, 2016, 11:34:50 AM »
What's your reasoning on this one?

ProjectCornDog

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Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #4 on: June 22, 2016, 11:43:29 AM »
Not to sound like Alex Jones here (I don't think there's a NWO or believe in conspiracy theories), but I'm not a globalist. I think national sovereignty is extremely important.

The EU has unelected, unknown officials who work in backrooms to pass laws that affect all the nations of the EU. We can only pray that the United States never joins an agreement like this that results in this type of situation.


The Shuruku Demon

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Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #5 on: June 22, 2016, 12:08:30 PM »
I'm for remain. I'm not enamoured with the current EU, and would like to see significant reform (which the UK government will likely push for, and may achieve to some extent, if we stay in). But I think the economic case for leaving is weak and highly speculative, and the nationalist-leaning arguments for leaving fall flat with me, as someone who dislikes nationalism in general.

The only Brexit argument I have some sympathy with is the issue of excessive immigration to some parts of Britain (causing supply/demand issues with public services, housing, etc, and to some extent, cultural tensions as well). But I think it's possible to mitigate that without actually leaving the EU. Europe is already taking measures to discourage mass migration, and the British PM has made a deal with the EU that will reduce the incentives for migrants to come to Britain specifically.

MTL76

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Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #6 on: June 22, 2016, 01:22:00 PM »
How likely do you think it is that the UK will be able to reform the EU in the ways you describe? If it takes the threat of leaving to push any reforms through, that's not a very adaptive organization.



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The Shuruku Demon

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Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #7 on: June 22, 2016, 03:53:37 PM »
It isn't. And reforming it will likely be a slow, painstaking process for the most part. But I think the EU is being forced to change, not simply by demands from Britain, but by the current financial and refugee crises, which are causing problems for the other major countries in the union as well. Until fairly recently, the EU had been quite a complacent organisation IMO, but I think the triple-header of those two problems and the British referendum has been a serious wake-up call for it. It now MUST change, if it wishes to avoid a collapse or eventual break-up.

Ultimately, Britain has done well within (and partly because of) the EU, regardless. It's easy to forget that with the current problems being reported on, but Britain was regarded as the sick man of Europe back in the '80s. The introduction of the European Single Market in 1993 (something the UK specifically pushed for, showing we can have an impact in the direction the EU takes) and the availability of foreign labour has been a significant factor in Britain's economic upturn since then.

We also have a special status within the EU, excluded from the European single currency and Schengen area, and entitled to an abatement in our contribution to the EU budget (a budget which is being scaled back anyway). So to the extent that there are problems in EU, we don't feel the impact as much as countries like France and Germany. In that respect, it's even moreso in their interest to sort out those issues than it is in ours.

ProjectCornDog

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Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #8 on: June 22, 2016, 03:57:10 PM »
"They're doing okay" is not a good argument for them to stay in the EU, not to mention you completely ignored the fact that being part of the EU violates national sovereignty. There is an unelected group of people that makes backroom laws that every country in the EU are bound to follow. 

MTL76

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Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #9 on: June 22, 2016, 04:26:37 PM »
I was reading about how the British fishing industry has been negatively affected by EU regulation, particularly the smaller independent fishermen. According to them, they are being crushed by limitations on how and where they can fish, limitations which don't apply to their competition from other countries.



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nu-safado

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Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #10 on: June 22, 2016, 05:35:12 PM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAgKHSNqxa8

It would be a disastrous decision IMHO

Most of the decision making regarding Brexit cites small, regulatory hiccups as real motivations camouflaging the real reason for Britians desire to leave; growing nativism and sheer racism.

Boris Johnson, ex-Mayor of London very reluctantly handed the reigns of the mayorship to a Muslim and he was clearly displeased at the ethnicity of his successor Nigel Farage, leader of the racist UKIP party, has no real motivation other than racism. In a twisted way, The UKIP is the Republican Tea Party mixed with Donald Trump making overtly racist demands and getting very close to achieving them. The UKIP represents nothing other than obstructionism and anti-European sentiment.

On a more practical note

1 - Britain will have a two year grace period to re-establish its relationships with all existing European organizations, as it will be forced to do business with them anyhow.  During that initial phase, there is a growing fear of a decline in the Sterling and a recession as capital flees the country and London, the world's financial center, might even move to Frankfurt.

As of right now Britain is financially not very exposed to the European Union, so making its daily businesses more difficult just to officially say it isn't a member of the EU is cutting off its nose to spite its face. Britain will still have to interact with the EU, it will simply require a lot more time and organization to do so and create obstacles that make it more difficult

2 - The move is meant largely in part to feed a growing anti-immigrant frenzy. Britain is particular adamant in its dislike of Muslims, Syrian refugee's and Central Europeans; especially the Polish which are their version of Mexicans in the US.

While this fear is sweeping the world, it wont work in Britain for the same reason it wouldn't work in the US.

Labor will have to move in and out of Britain one way or another and this will add layers of difficulty to a nation that can't afford the isolationism it imagines it can have. It's insane.

3 - Britain will become ales attractive destination for Foreign Dire t Investment. The rest of the EU will have capital flowing easily, while Britain will have to negotiate every single trade deal it brokers with no guarantee on favorable terms or even acceptance of terms. The common claim that Britain is feeding money into a dead system doesn't work out mathematically. Britain receiv4s a rebate for money invested into common Eu programs meaning that the money spent weekly on common programs takes away nothing from well-known services like the British NHS


Summary TL;Dr

It's an emotional decision based on nativism, isolationism and let's face it - racism.

Britain has all the advantages of being independent of European Union issues.

It has a currency that is MORE valuable than the Euro and by a decent amount. It could lose that advantage. Britain is courting recession. Any claims that a weaker sterling will make for better exports are simple-mined and untrue as Britain isn't really an export market for anything other than services.

Britain is a financial markets powerhouse. It currently has access to all of the EU's markets with virtually no exposure to the usual issues faced by EU members of exchange rates, Centra Bank issues, and exposure to EU trade bloc issues

At present Britain can have its economic way in every possible way and suffer nione of the consequences , while still needing access to EU markets which it could lose. It's a terrifying idea and its the possible first rupture in a system that is already teetering on the edge of disaster. I'm 1000000% opposed to isolationism for isolationisms sake. Britain is essentially a preview of a US with Trump as President.

The Shuruku Demon

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Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #11 on: June 22, 2016, 06:40:19 PM »
"They're doing okay" is not a good argument for them to stay in the EU,

Over the long term, we've not only done okay, we've done fantastically well. And we're more or less guaranteed at least a short term dip in our economy if we leave. The British pound has been in decline for over six months now, due to concern over Brexit. And the uncertainty of Britain's future may in fact have a longer term adverse impact, causing companies to think twice about investing here, and thereby harming the prospects of younger people looking for career opportunities within the next 5-10 years.

not to mention you completely ignored the fact that being part of the EU violates national sovereignty.

Not really bothered by that, personally. I just don't believe in nationalism as an ideology. Not to say I'm not prone to nationalism from time to time (I want the British football teams to do well in the Euros, for example), but I don't consider it a virtue, more an indulgence.

There is an unelected group of people that makes backroom laws that every country in the EU are bound to follow.

In principle, I'm not in favour of that. But in practice, I'm not overly concerned about it as long as the laws they're laws they're making aren't having an adverse impact by and large. The EU has for example imposed laws that help protect workers' rights. Democratic or not, the impact of that is positive rather than negative in my view.





I was reading about how the British fishing industry has been negatively affected by EU regulation, particularly the smaller independent fishermen. According to them, they are being crushed by limitations on how and where they can fish, limitations which don't apply to their competition from other countries.

As I understand it, the main reason those fishing regulations were put in place was to help preserve fish stocks, which have long been in decline in some areas. If the limitations aren't the same everywhere, it's probably because the fish stocks aren't as depleted everywhere. I have sympathy with struggling fishermen to some extent, but I'm not sure I want them to prosper at the cost of wiping out whole species of fish in a given region. Regulations aside, that wouldn't be a sustainable long term business plan.

ProjectCornDog

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Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #12 on: June 22, 2016, 06:54:17 PM »
Quote
Not really bothered by that, personally. I just don't believe in nationalism as an ideology. Not to say I'm not prone to nationalism from time to time (I want the British football teams to do well in the Euros, for example), but I don't consider it a virtue, more an indulgence.

Ugh huh. So would you support a one world government?

Panthergod

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Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #13 on: June 22, 2016, 07:45:12 PM »
Quote
Not really bothered by that, personally. I just don't believe in nationalism as an ideology. Not to say I'm not prone to nationalism from time to time (I want the British football teams to do well in the Euros, for example), but I don't consider it a virtue, more an indulgence.

Ugh huh. So would you support a one world government?

Yes they would. The EU is blatantly an outgrowth of the 3rd Reich.theyce been indictrinated to believe that corporate/statist tyranny is preferable to freedom, and so submit to slavery like how theyve been trained to do.

MTL76

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Re: The Brexit Thread
« Reply #14 on: June 22, 2016, 08:01:27 PM »
As I understand it, the main reason those fishing regulations were put in place was to help preserve fish stocks, which have long been in decline in some areas. If the limitations aren't the same everywhere, it's probably because the fish stocks aren't as depleted everywhere. I have sympathy with struggling fishermen to some extent, but I'm not sure I want them to prosper at the cost of wiping out whole species of fish in a given region. Regulations aside, that wouldn't be a sustainable long term business plan.

The issue is that these laws and regulations are being made by unelected bureaucrats who, it seems to be, have limited to no accountability to the people they are governing. You're describing a very paternalistic situation. What happens when they pass a law that is unpalatable to you? What recourse will you have? Democratically elected governments are far from perfect but there is at least some accountability.

This seems less like an issue of nationalism and more like one of self-government.


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